Statements delivered for an interview with SKYNEWS ARABIA on January 11, 2024
Blank Check: Ensuring Security and Stability in International Trade
French analyst, Frank Farnel, specializing in government relations and international affairs, has described the decision by the Security Council as a “blank check” to guarantee that necessary measures are taken to eliminate current threats and disruptions to international trade.
According to Farnel, the international maritime coalition and regional actors are indirectly responsible for implementing this decision.
When asked about the reaction of the Houthis to this decision, Farnel added: “At present, the Houthis have little to lose and their actions have garnered unexpected international attention. However, the international community is deeply concerned about the situation in the Red Sea region, not only because of the direct threats to global trade, environment, and populations, but also due to the potential for an escalation of a larger conflict in the Middle East.”
He emphasized that “the Houthis’ response to the Security Council resolution depends on the extent to which Iran takes necessary measures to end the Houthis’ military actions, and whether they continue to benefit from international visibility by disguising acts of war and piracy under the guise of supporting the Palestinian people.”
He also highlighted that “faced with repeated Houthi attacks on maritime transportation in the Red Sea, Western countries have limited options.”
The Houthis have little to lose and their actions have garnered unexpected international attention
The Houthis’ response to the Security Council resolution depends on the extent to which Iran takes necessary measures to end the Houthis’ military actions, and whether they continue to benefit from international visibility by disguising acts of war and piracy under the guise of supporting the Palestinian people
Article published by SKYNEWS ARABIA on January 11, 2024
What are the consequences of Resolution 2722 regarding the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea?
Abou Dhabi – Sky News Arabia
War drums beat in the Red Sea.
The UN Security Council’s resolution, which urges the Houthi militia in Yemen to immediately cease its attacks on ships, raises questions about its powers and the extent of its use to take new military measures to protect international maritime traffic.
This comes at a time when military observers and analysts, speaking to Sky News Arabia, believed that the Houthi group would not comply with the UN Security Council resolution, especially after ignoring the previous resolution No. 2216 issued in 2015 “under chapter seven”, which was then banned. Providing arms to the Houthis and imposing numerous sanctions on them and demanding that they cease fighting, while indicating that the United States would exploit this decision as a “political umbrella” to carry out their strikes against sources of threat in the Red Sea in the coming period.
Approximately 18 companies have already decided to change their ships’ course from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope to avoid being exposed to attacks and the expected effects on seafarers, at a time when the International Maritime Organization has stated that this adds 10 days to these sea journeys and increases shipping prices.
What are the details of the decision?
• The resolution, numbered “2722,” was drafted by the United States and Japan and adopted by the Security Council with a majority vote of 11 members, four abstentions.
• The resolution strongly condemned the more than twenty attacks launched by the Houthis against commercial and transport vessels since November 19th. It demanded an immediate end to these attacks, which hinder global trade and undermine rights, freedoms, regional peace, and security.
• It called for the immediate release of the “#Galaxy Leader” ship and its crew, emphasizing the need to respect the rights and freedoms of navigation for commercial and transport vessels in accordance with international law.
• The resolution commended the efforts of member states, within the International Maritime Organization, to enhance the safety of commercial and transport vessels from all countries and ensure safe passage through the Red Sea.
• It encouraged member states to continue developing and strengthening their capacities and to support coastal and port states in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab in order to enhance maritime security.
• The resolution highlighted the need to address root causes, including conflicts that contribute to regional tensions and disrupt maritime security, in order to ensure a quick, efficient, and effective response. It also reiterated the obligation of all Member States to comply with their obligations, including the arms embargo imposed by Resolution 2216 of the Council and the classification of the Houthis as a group subject to the arms embargo, in accordance with Resolution 2624.
• Russia, which proposed three amendments to the draft resolution, all of which were rejected, specifically wanted to add “the conflict in the Gaza Strip” as one of the contributing factors to tensions. However, the amendments did not receive the required support from the United States. The Council’s 15 members.
A Role for the “Guardian of Prosperity”
In exclusive statements to Sky News Arabia, military and strategic expert Brigadier General Samir Ragheb explained that the Houthi group will not abide by the recently released resolution from the Security Council, especially since they did not comply with the previous resolution 2216 under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter. He emphasized that the issue lies not in adopting Security Council resolutions in itself, but in the mechanism of their implementation, particularly with the continued attacks and military operations by the Houthis over the past decade of war in Yemen.
Regarding the consequences of the Security Council resolution in the coming period, Ragheb indicated that the pace of missile and aerial military actions could accelerate from the coalition of Guardians of Prosperity formed by the United States against the Houthis, targeting the source of the threat itself and specific targets with drones or cruise missiles. This is based on the main provision of the resolution, which states the right of UN member states, in accordance with international law, to “defend their vessels against attacks, including those that infringe upon navigation rights and freedoms.”
This provision has been considered by many as implicit support for Operation Prosperity Sentinel, a multinational maritime task force led by the United States that defends commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden against Houthi missile and drone attacks.
The Security Council adopts a resolution condemning Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Brigadier General Samir Ragheb reiterated that the United States is conducting numerous combat operations and, if they find a legal and political framework, they will exploit it to reduce the political cost of military operations, demonstrate support for navigation security, prove that their operations are in the interest of global trade stability, and seek to show Russia that it is also violating international consensus. Discussions were held during the Security Council session.
He emphasized that Russia attempted to amend the draft resolution and accused the United States of “double standards,” but Washington thwarted attempts to amend the wording.
For his part, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, stated that his country attaches great importance to the security of international maritime transport, but the true objectives of the resolution are not to ensure navigation security in the Red Sea. Rather, it is an attempt to legitimize the current measures of the coalition formed by the United States and its allies after “it happens and receives the open blessing of the Security Council.”
Nebenzia emphasized that the resolution addresses the right of countries to defend their vessels against attacks, which does not exist in international law, he said.
International Legitimacy
Military and strategic expert Mahmoud Mohieddin, speaking to Sky News Arabia, revealed that since the formation of the Prosperity Guardians coalition, the United States has been seeking a legal reference from the UN to give international and legal legitimacy to coalition operations.
He added, “The French Navy announced that French warships are protecting French interests ships transiting the Red Sea and coordinating with the Prosperity Guardians. This is the first statement after the publication of the Security Council resolution, which opens the door to the legitimacy of military intervention under the Prosperity Guardians operation against the Houthis in case of attacks on the interests of any participating country, utilizing the legitimacy of self-defense.”
However, he emphasized that this decision does not constitute international consensus to launch a comprehensive strike against the Houthis.
Houthi drones and missiles have been intercepted in the Red Sea.
Blank Check: Ensuring Security and Stability in International Trade
French analyst, Frank Farnel, specializing in government relations and international affairs, has described the decision by the Security Council as a “blank check” to guarantee that necessary measures are taken to eliminate current threats and disruptions to international trade.
According to Farnel, the international maritime coalition and regional actors are indirectly responsible for implementing this decision.
When asked about the reaction of the Houthis to this decision, Farnel added: “At present, the Houthis have little to lose and their actions have garnered unexpected international attention. However, the international community is deeply concerned about the situation in the Red Sea region, not only because of the direct threats to global trade, environment, and populations, but also due to the potential for an escalation of a larger conflict in the Middle East.”
He emphasized that “the Houthis’ response to the Security Council resolution depends on the extent to which Iran takes necessary measures to end the Houthis’ military actions, and whether they continue to benefit from international visibility by disguising acts of war and piracy under the guise of supporting the Palestinian people.”
He also highlighted that “faced with repeated Houthi attacks on maritime transportation in the Red Sea, Western countries have limited options.”
From Beirut, Professor Khaled Al-Azzi, an expert in international relations and foreign policy, has explained that the Houthis have launched numerous missiles and drones at military vessels passing through the Red Sea. Their stated pretext is to support the besieged Palestinian people in Gaza and prevent supplies from reaching the Israeli side via Bab al-Mandab. However, this claim is unrealistic on the ground, as the Houthi group has its own agendas and primarily implements Iranian policies.
Al-Azzi emphasized that the United States is strategically targeting the Houthis and simultaneously sending messages to Iran, urging them to stop supporting the Houthis and Hezbollah.
The Houthis Disregarded: Expert Warns UN Resolution May Have Little Impact
In a recent interview with Sky News Arabia, Richard Weitz, the director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Military and Political Analysis, expressed concerns about the effectiveness of the UN Security Council’s resolution regarding Houthi attacks on ships. According to Weitz, “I fear that the Houthis will simply ignore it.” He also pointed out that while the resolution may authorize the US and its allies to attack the Houthis, it does not mandate it, as the coalition has the freedom to launch attacks without waiting for a final decision.
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