This essay analyzes the selective failure of nuclear deterrence observed in the conflicts of 2025 and 2026, highlighting cases in Ukraine, Israel, South Asia, and Iran. It advocates for a shift from deterrence by threat to deterrence by denial, emphasizing resilience and defense while warning against the impulse for nuclear proliferation among anxious allies.
The Shift from Deterrence to Defense: Lessons Learned Read More »
Coalitions often fail not due to flawed strategies but because they are viewed as a destination rather than an ongoing practice. Understanding the architecture of coalitions, as demonstrated through the JCPOA and Iran’s resilient alliances, reveals essential principles for durable cooperation. Effective coalitions require depth over breadth, individual commitment, and strategic coherence through long-term planning and adaptive human architecture.
Lessons from the JCPOA: Coalition Failures and Solutions Read More »
This article emphasizes trust as a crucial asset in public affairs, asserting that it underpins the effectiveness of budgets, access, data, and messaging. It highlights the erosion of trust in developed economies and shifts towards more relatable, proximate voices. Trust must be actively managed and measured as a strategic priority to achieve meaningful outcomes in advocacy efforts.
Trust: The Key Asset in Public Affairs Read More »
This article emphasizes the importance of coalition building in corporate public affairs, arguing that individual advocacy fails due to credibility issues. Successful policy influence relies on diverse third-party validators for credibility and legitimacy. Companies should treat coalition building as a strategic capability, focusing on mapping credibility gaps and ensuring narrative discipline to enhance effectiveness.
Building Credible Coalitions: A C-Suite Mandate Read More »
This article argues that policymaking operates as a structured, cyclical system with four interdependent stages: agenda setting, consultation, negotiation, and implementation. Emphasizing case studies from international diplomacy and corporate regulation, it demonstrates that effective policymaking requires understanding this framework to navigate the complexities of power dynamics and design durable agreements.
From Agenda to Implementation: A Policy Framework Read More »
The security architecture of the Sahel is undergoing a fundamental transformation. In 2024, West Africa accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally. Central to this destabilization is the rapid expansion of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). As I recently discussed in an interview with Sky News Arabia, the group is transitioning from
JNIM Transformation: Threat to Global Security in the Sahel Read More »
Executive Summary On February 27, 2022, Germany reached a turning point. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement of a Zeitenwende—a “watershed moment” in German foreign and security policy—was more than a pledge to funnel hundreds of billions of euros into the Bundeswehr. For the first time since World War II, Germany cast aside its long-held reservations about
Europe’s Next Hegemon: Strategic and Geopolitical Consequences of a Rearmed Germany Read More »
Synthèse stratégique Qualifier le monde actuel de « poudrière », selon le général Pierre de Villiers, n’est pas du simple alarmisme : c’est le cœur des enjeux sécuritaires contemporains. Le « dividende de la paix » post-Guerre froide a disparu. À sa place, la résurgence des rivalités, l’effritement des régimes de contrôle des armements et
La poudrière : repenser la dissuasion face à la nouvelle donne stratégique Read More »
1. Introduction: The Stakes of International Nuclear Cooperation Civil nuclear partnerships are not simply commercial transactions; they represent a fusion of science, diplomacy, and global security management. As nations search for sustainable energy and technological self-sufficiency, robust international mechanisms are required to prevent the peaceful atom from fueling the spread of nuclear weapons. The U.S.
Section 123 Agreements and Nuclear Cooperation. Read More »
1. Introduction aux Accords de la Section 123 — Un Enjeu Majeur pour la Gouvernance Nucléaire La coopération nucléaire civile internationale s’inscrit au cœur des enjeux de sécurité globale, de stratégie diplomatique et de développement économique. Avant que les États-Unis n’exportent un réacteur, des composants sensibles ou du combustible nucléaire à destination d’un autre pays,