This essay analyzes the selective failure of nuclear deterrence observed in the conflicts of 2025 and 2026, highlighting cases in Ukraine, Israel, South Asia, and Iran. It advocates for a shift from deterrence by threat to deterrence by denial, emphasizing resilience and defense while warning against the impulse for nuclear proliferation among anxious allies.
The Shift from Deterrence to Defense: Lessons Learned Read More »
Coalitions often fail not due to flawed strategies but because they are viewed as a destination rather than an ongoing practice. Understanding the architecture of coalitions, as demonstrated through the JCPOA and Iran’s resilient alliances, reveals essential principles for durable cooperation. Effective coalitions require depth over breadth, individual commitment, and strategic coherence through long-term planning and adaptive human architecture.
Lessons from the JCPOA: Coalition Failures and Solutions Read More »
By July 2026, the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted to a stalemate marked by limited territorial gains for Russia, a severe fuel crisis from Ukrainian strikes, and expanding geopolitical implications. Russia’s offensive stutters, and a Ukrainian deep-strike campaign severely hampers Russian logistics, exacerbating operational challenges and casualties.
Russia-Ukraine War Update: Stalled Offensives and Fuel Crisis by July 2026 Read More »
The June 17, 2026 Islamabad MoU between the US and Iran aimed to ease long-standing tensions through a 60-day framework for a comprehensive deal, addressing military operations, sanctions, and nuclear commitments. However, subsequent missile tests, asset disputes, and internal regime divisions reveal a precarious situation with heightened risks of renewed conflict.
US-Iran Islamabad MoU: A Fragile Road to Peace Read More »
This article emphasizes trust as a crucial asset in public affairs, asserting that it underpins the effectiveness of budgets, access, data, and messaging. It highlights the erosion of trust in developed economies and shifts towards more relatable, proximate voices. Trust must be actively managed and measured as a strategic priority to achieve meaningful outcomes in advocacy efforts.
Trust: The Key Asset in Public Affairs Read More »
Executive Summary The Iran war has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape, and the consequences are still unfolding. Hezbollah, once the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, has lost an estimated 80–85% of its pre-war firepower, with its mass-raid and long-range strike capabilities severely degraded after the joint U.S.-Israel campaign severed the IRGC Quds
UAE-Israel Alliance: A Shift in Middle Eastern Security Read More »
This article emphasizes the importance of coalition building in corporate public affairs, arguing that individual advocacy fails due to credibility issues. Successful policy influence relies on diverse third-party validators for credibility and legitimacy. Companies should treat coalition building as a strategic capability, focusing on mapping credibility gaps and ensuring narrative discipline to enhance effectiveness.
Building Credible Coalitions: A C-Suite Mandate Read More »
The Middle East is undergoing a significant strategic transformation as the bipolar order between Iran and the U.S.-aligned bloc disintegrates. Key events like the 2026 Iran war and the reimposition of UN sanctions have weakened Iran’s proxy network, prompting Gulf states to adopt a hedging strategy and pursue conditional partnerships, fostering a fluid, multipolar environment marked by uncertainty and adaptive policymaking.
The Impact of Iran’s Erosion on Middle East Stability Read More »
This essay contends that timing, rather than merit, is crucial in statecraft and policy advocacy. Using Iran’s nuclear diplomacy as a case study, it identifies five domains where timing influences outcomes: policy windows, stakeholder engagement, electoral calendars, negotiation tempo, and the perishability of intelligence. Understanding and managing timing can provide a significant advantage in shaping decisions.
Mastering Timing: A Blueprint for Policy Success Read More »
A proactive public affairs strategy is essential for shaping government policy and securing market access. It is no longer merely reactive but a board-level capability that influences business performance across sectors. Understanding the link between policy and market dynamics enables organizations to anticipate change, build credibility, and foster growth in politically complex environments.
Unlocking Market Access Through Public Affairs Strategy Read More »