This essay analyzes the selective failure of nuclear deterrence observed in the conflicts of 2025 and 2026, highlighting cases in Ukraine, Israel, South Asia, and Iran. It advocates for a shift from deterrence by threat to deterrence by denial, emphasizing resilience and defense while warning against the impulse for nuclear proliferation among anxious allies.
The Shift from Deterrence to Defense: Lessons Learned Read More »
Coalitions often fail not due to flawed strategies but because they are viewed as a destination rather than an ongoing practice. Understanding the architecture of coalitions, as demonstrated through the JCPOA and Iran’s resilient alliances, reveals essential principles for durable cooperation. Effective coalitions require depth over breadth, individual commitment, and strategic coherence through long-term planning and adaptive human architecture.
Lessons from the JCPOA: Coalition Failures and Solutions Read More »
Executive Summary The Iran war has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape, and the consequences are still unfolding. Hezbollah, once the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, has lost an estimated 80–85% of its pre-war firepower, with its mass-raid and long-range strike capabilities severely degraded after the joint U.S.-Israel campaign severed the IRGC Quds
UAE-Israel Alliance: A Shift in Middle Eastern Security Read More »
The Middle East is undergoing a significant strategic transformation as the bipolar order between Iran and the U.S.-aligned bloc disintegrates. Key events like the 2026 Iran war and the reimposition of UN sanctions have weakened Iran’s proxy network, prompting Gulf states to adopt a hedging strategy and pursue conditional partnerships, fostering a fluid, multipolar environment marked by uncertainty and adaptive policymaking.
The Impact of Iran’s Erosion on Middle East Stability Read More »
The security architecture of the Sahel is undergoing a fundamental transformation. In 2024, West Africa accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally. Central to this destabilization is the rapid expansion of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). As I recently discussed in an interview with Sky News Arabia, the group is transitioning from
JNIM Transformation: Threat to Global Security in the Sahel Read More »
Since October 7, Israel has increasingly declined adversary-imposed deterrence formulas and now responds to attacks on its north with direct strikes, citing the defense of its civilians, from Dahiyeh to Iran.
Iran and Israel: Escalation and the Question of Self-Defense Read More »
The 2026 war reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape, highlighting the complex dynamics between Israel, Iran, and the Gulf states. While Israel achieved military objectives against Iran’s nuclear capabilities and proxies, the regime adapted rather than collapsed. The conflict’s ramifications rippled globally, affecting economies beyond the region and revealing the limits of military force in engendering political change.
Geopolitical Shifts in the Wake of the Gulf Conflict Read More »
Il existe un péril singulier dans l’instant où chacun soupire d’aise en même temps. Ce moment précède presque toujours la faute suivante. Et il est en train d’advenir. Dans une douzaine de capitales, la même conclusion confortable durcit : l’Iran est brisé, l’axe est épuisé, la longue épreuve s’achève. La tentation se comprend. Après des
La bataille se joue sur la carte Read More »
Why Iran’s Decline Will Be Decided by Trade Routes, Not Air Strikes The temptation after a successful military campaign is to mistake damage for resolution. That temptation is now shaping how Western governments think about Iran. After the strikes of 2026, a familiar conclusion has hardened across allied capitals: Tehran is broken, its network of
The Map After the Missiles Read More »
Table of Contents Executive Summary The Middle East stands on the cusp of significant change, caught between energy shocks, evolving security alliances, and a clear shift in the historic partnership between the United States and Israel. A hard-won, two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was reached on April 7, with each side eager to
Navigating Tensions: A Fresh Look at the Evolving Iran–US–Israel Dynamics Read More »