This essay analyzes the selective failure of nuclear deterrence observed in the conflicts of 2025 and 2026, highlighting cases in Ukraine, Israel, South Asia, and Iran. It advocates for a shift from deterrence by threat to deterrence by denial, emphasizing resilience and defense while warning against the impulse for nuclear proliferation among anxious allies.
The Shift from Deterrence to Defense: Lessons Learned Read More »
Coalitions often fail not due to flawed strategies but because they are viewed as a destination rather than an ongoing practice. Understanding the architecture of coalitions, as demonstrated through the JCPOA and Iran’s resilient alliances, reveals essential principles for durable cooperation. Effective coalitions require depth over breadth, individual commitment, and strategic coherence through long-term planning and adaptive human architecture.
Lessons from the JCPOA: Coalition Failures and Solutions Read More »
Lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) are actively deployed in conflicts, presenting significant governance challenges. This article analyzes their technology, legal implications, and international governance efforts. It highlights the need for a binding treaty to ensure ethical accountability and compliance with international humanitarian law to address gaps in existing frameworks and prevent misuse.
LAWS: Analyzing AI-Driven Autonomous Weapons in Modern Warfare Read More »
The security architecture of the Sahel is undergoing a fundamental transformation. In 2024, West Africa accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally. Central to this destabilization is the rapid expansion of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). As I recently discussed in an interview with Sky News Arabia, the group is transitioning from
JNIM Transformation: Threat to Global Security in the Sahel Read More »
Governments often seek public input on proposed policies through formal consultations, crucial in shaping effective regulations. Success hinges on timely engagement during the formulation stage, adherence to the Gunning Principles for fair participation, and presenting well-structured, evidence-driven submissions. Collaboration and transparency enhance influence, enabling stakeholders to navigate policy processes effectively.
Mastering Government Consultations: A Strategic Guide Read More »
NATO’s enlargement into Central and Eastern Europe has fundamentally redefined the continent’s security landscape, post-Cold War. While offering protection to former Soviet-dominated states, it heightened tensions with Russia, amplifying perceptions of encirclement. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine underscores NATO’s pivotal role and the necessity for credible deterrence and commitment among member states.
Résumé analytique Le 27 février 2022, les plaques tectoniques de la sécurité européenne ont bougé. Lors d’une session extraordinaire du Bundestag, le chancelier Olaf Scholz a annoncé un Zeitenwende — un tournant décisif. Ce n’était pas une simple réaction à l’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie ; c’était l’abandon de près de huit décennies de
Executive Summary On February 27, 2022, Germany reached a turning point. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement of a Zeitenwende—a “watershed moment” in German foreign and security policy—was more than a pledge to funnel hundreds of billions of euros into the Bundeswehr. For the first time since World War II, Germany cast aside its long-held reservations about
Europe’s Next Hegemon: Strategic and Geopolitical Consequences of a Rearmed Germany Read More »
Key Points Iran’s Central Role in the CrisisIran remains at the heart of an international crisis involving Washington and Tel Aviv, driven by its accelerated nuclear program, ballistic expansion, repeated violations of international obligations, and structural support for a network of regional armed groups. Despite formal commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Joint
Current Tensions Between Iran, the US, and Israel Read More »
Points Cles Contexte stratégique Histoire et évolution du programme nucléaire et balistique iranien Cadre juridique, conformité et régime de sanctions internationales Approches opérationnelles Dynamique régionale et rôle des groupes soutenus par l’Iran Conformité, chantage diplomatique et pressions internes La connexion Gaza : pièges tactiques et résilience du Hamas Présence et renforcement de la flotte américaine
Tensions actuelles entre l’Iran, les États-Unis et Israël Read More »