This essay analyzes the selective failure of nuclear deterrence observed in the conflicts of 2025 and 2026, highlighting cases in Ukraine, Israel, South Asia, and Iran. It advocates for a shift from deterrence by threat to deterrence by denial, emphasizing resilience and defense while warning against the impulse for nuclear proliferation among anxious allies.
The Shift from Deterrence to Defense: Lessons Learned Read More »
Coalitions often fail not due to flawed strategies but because they are viewed as a destination rather than an ongoing practice. Understanding the architecture of coalitions, as demonstrated through the JCPOA and Iran’s resilient alliances, reveals essential principles for durable cooperation. Effective coalitions require depth over breadth, individual commitment, and strategic coherence through long-term planning and adaptive human architecture.
Lessons from the JCPOA: Coalition Failures and Solutions Read More »
Governments often seek public input on proposed policies through formal consultations, crucial in shaping effective regulations. Success hinges on timely engagement during the formulation stage, adherence to the Gunning Principles for fair participation, and presenting well-structured, evidence-driven submissions. Collaboration and transparency enhance influence, enabling stakeholders to navigate policy processes effectively.
Mastering Government Consultations: A Strategic Guide Read More »
Since October 7, Israel has increasingly declined adversary-imposed deterrence formulas and now responds to attacks on its north with direct strikes, citing the defense of its civilians, from Dahiyeh to Iran.
Iran and Israel: Escalation and the Question of Self-Defense Read More »
The 2026 war reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape, highlighting the complex dynamics between Israel, Iran, and the Gulf states. While Israel achieved military objectives against Iran’s nuclear capabilities and proxies, the regime adapted rather than collapsed. The conflict’s ramifications rippled globally, affecting economies beyond the region and revealing the limits of military force in engendering political change.
Geopolitical Shifts in the Wake of the Gulf Conflict Read More »
Il existe un péril singulier dans l’instant où chacun soupire d’aise en même temps. Ce moment précède presque toujours la faute suivante. Et il est en train d’advenir. Dans une douzaine de capitales, la même conclusion confortable durcit : l’Iran est brisé, l’axe est épuisé, la longue épreuve s’achève. La tentation se comprend. Après des
La bataille se joue sur la carte Read More »
Why Iran’s Decline Will Be Decided by Trade Routes, Not Air Strikes The temptation after a successful military campaign is to mistake damage for resolution. That temptation is now shaping how Western governments think about Iran. After the strikes of 2026, a familiar conclusion has hardened across allied capitals: Tehran is broken, its network of
The Map After the Missiles Read More »
Table of Contents Executive Summary The Middle East stands on the cusp of significant change, caught between energy shocks, evolving security alliances, and a clear shift in the historic partnership between the United States and Israel. A hard-won, two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was reached on April 7, with each side eager to
Navigating Tensions: A Fresh Look at the Evolving Iran–US–Israel Dynamics Read More »
Key Points Iran’s Central Role in the CrisisIran remains at the heart of an international crisis involving Washington and Tel Aviv, driven by its accelerated nuclear program, ballistic expansion, repeated violations of international obligations, and structural support for a network of regional armed groups. Despite formal commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Joint
Current Tensions Between Iran, the US, and Israel Read More »
Points Cles Contexte stratégique Histoire et évolution du programme nucléaire et balistique iranien Cadre juridique, conformité et régime de sanctions internationales Approches opérationnelles Dynamique régionale et rôle des groupes soutenus par l’Iran Conformité, chantage diplomatique et pressions internes La connexion Gaza : pièges tactiques et résilience du Hamas Présence et renforcement de la flotte américaine
Tensions actuelles entre l’Iran, les États-Unis et Israël Read More »